The lead researcher, Philbert Luhunga, is chief research officer at the Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology (COSTECH). He based his warning on a study published in Nature Scientific Reports that used advanced climate models and data covering the period to 2100.
The report finds that "very wet" and "extreme wet" days (rain between 50 mm and 450 mm) will become more common. Coastal areas, the southwestern highlands and northeastern regions are likely to be hit hardest. The October–December rainy season may become less predictable and urban nights are projected to be significantly hotter.
These changes already affect farmers. The World Bank warns that climate change could push millions into poverty and force many people to move by 2050. The report cites the December 2011 floods in Dar es Salaam, the city's heaviest rains since independence in 1961, as an example of such extreme events. Luhunga says policymakers must act now to protect vulnerable communities.
Health experts note that erratic rain and higher temperatures can worsen disease outbreaks. Other specialists call for climate finance for communities, traditional water conservation and agroforestry, climate-resilient agriculture, better early warning systems and upgraded infrastructure.
Difficult words
- predictable — easy to know or expect in the future
- project — to estimate future events or numbersprojected
- vulnerable — at risk of harm or damage
- erratic — not regular; happening at unexpected times
- outbreak — a sudden start of disease or violenceoutbreaks
- infrastructure — basic systems and services for a community
- poverty — the condition of not having enough money
- agroforestry — farming that mixes trees with crops or animals
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- What can local farmers do to prepare for more extreme rain and hotter nights?
- Do you think policymakers should act now to protect vulnerable communities? Why or why not?
- Which of the suggested actions (for example, early warning systems or upgraded infrastructure) seems most important in your area, and why?
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