New research, led by Philbert Luhunga of the Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology (COSTECH), warns that parts of Tanzania will likely face more extreme rainfall and rising temperatures. The study, published in Nature Scientific Reports, relied on advanced climate models and data spanning 2011 to 2100 to assess future risks.
Researchers say "very wet" and "extreme wet" days — defined in the report as rainfall ranging from 50 mm to 450 mm — will become more common. The coastal belt, the southwestern highlands and northeastern regions appear most vulnerable, while the October–December rainy season is expected to be less predictable. The study also projects significantly hotter nights in urban areas, increasing heat stress for city residents.
These shifts already affect farmers and local livelihoods. The World Bank estimates that climate change could push millions more Tanzanians into poverty and could force up to many millions to move from their homes by 2050. The authors cite the December 2011 flooding in Dar es Salaam, the heaviest rains since independence in 1961, as an example of extreme events that now seem more likely. Luhunga warns that climate change is an urgent issue and calls for immediate policy action.
Health specialists point to rising disease risks, including ongoing cholera battles, and stress the need for national climate data and better planning for growing towns. Laurel Kivuyo of Climate Hub Tanzania argues for a multi-pronged adaptation strategy, greater climate finance for communities and the integration of local knowledge into national plans. Key recommended steps include:
- Dedicated climate finance for community-based organisations
- Integrating traditional water conservation and agroforestry
- Promoting climate-resilient agriculture and better early warning systems
- Upgrading infrastructure for climate resilience
The piece was produced by SciDev.Net’s Sub-Saharan Africa English desk with support from COSTECH. COSTECH was established in 1986 to coordinate and promote research and technology development in Tanzania.
Difficult words
- vulnerable — likely to be harmed or affected
- livelihood — a way people earn money and livelivelihoods
- adaptation — changes to reduce harm from new conditions
- climate finance — money to help communities cope with climate
- agroforestry — growing trees and crops together on land
- infrastructure — basic systems and structures for public use
- early warning systems — alerts and tools to warn about dangers early
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- How might more frequent extreme rainfall and hotter nights affect farming and cities in Tanzania?
- What are the benefits and challenges of using local knowledge together with national climate plans?
- Which of the recommended steps (for example climate finance or upgrading infrastructure) should be a priority in your view, and why?
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