March Madness and its bracket contests attract millions of casual and serious fans each year. Many people choose winners and predict upsets, trying to use knowledge and judgment, but outcomes often depend on chance.
In psychology, the illusion of control describes the tendency to believe that personal choices strongly affect events that are actually driven by luck. During March Madness the illusion appears when so-called experts offer picks that feel smart. Yet one bad game, one lucky shot, or one untimely injury can change a tournament quickly and cause many brackets to fail.
Albert Cohen of Michigan State University comments on the balance of skill and luck. He is director of the university’s graduate certificate in sports analytics, directs the Actuarial Science Program, and serves as a senior academic specialist in the College of Natural Science’s math department and in the statistics and probability department. He notes that statistics and actuarial science have closer connections to sports than many expect. Futurity published the original post presenting his views.
Difficult words
- bracket — a prediction chart showing tournament match winnersbrackets
- illusion — a false belief that something is true
- upset — an unexpected win by a weaker teamupsets
- chance — the role of luck or randomness in results
- tendency — a usual way people think or behave
- actuarial — related to risk and financial statistics
- sports analytics — analysis of game data to explain results
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- Have you ever entered a bracket contest? What did you learn about skill and luck from that experience?
- Do you think expert picks reduce the role of luck, or do they increase the illusion of control? Why?
- How would you balance your own knowledge and chance when predicting the winner of a game or tournament?
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