March Madness draws millions of fans who fill brackets and predict winners and upsets. The illusion of control is a common idea in psychology. It means people think their choices strongly affect events that are actually driven by chance.
Albert Cohen of Michigan State University comments on the role of skill and luck in bracket success. He directs the graduate certificate in sports analytics and the Actuarial Science Program, and he works in math and statistics departments. Cohen says good picks may show skill, but luck still matters and can make many brackets fail. Futurity published the original post with his views.
Difficult words
- bracket — paper or online form where people pick winnersbrackets
- upset — unexpected win by a weaker teamupsets
- illusion of control — false belief that choices change random events
- skill — ability to do something well
- luck — events that happen by chance, not skill
- analytics — study of data to find patterns or answers
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- Have you ever filled a bracket? What happened?
- Do you think skill or luck is more important when predicting sports results? Why?
- How do you feel when a team you predict loses in an upset?
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