Saffron farmers across Kashmir face an increased risk of dry spells and crop failure as the current El Niño pattern shifts regional rainfall. Saffron cultivation in the Kashmiri Himalayas depends on timely rain and snow, and any deficit directly reduces yields and household incomes for thousands of families who rely on the crop.
Mukhtar Ahmad, director of Meteorology at the Srinagar station of the Indian Meteorological Department, warned that "if January precipitation remains below normal, drought-like situations may develop in many areas of Kashmir." He told SciDev.Net that "three to four major spells (of snow) are needed to compensate the deficit for November and December," because that winter precipitation contributes essential water for irrigation.
The World Meteorological Organization said the ongoing El Niño is expected to last at least until April 2024 and added that record-high land and sea-surface temperatures since June mean 2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record. Agricultural economist Farhet Shaheeen reported heavy losses, with some farmers losing up to 70 per cent of a season’s crop, and urged improved government-collected data to design adaptation measures.
Suggested steps include better collection and storage of water, building flood resistance and strengthening early warning systems:
- collecting and storing water more efficiently,
- building flood resistance,
- strengthening early warning systems.
Longer-term pressures have already reduced Kashmir saffron since a 1990s peak: annual yield averaged about 15.5 tonnes from 5,700 hectares then, but by 2016 the area fell to 3,715 hectares and per-hectare production dropped to less than 1.88 kg versus about 6 kg elsewhere. A retired professor said annual precipitation fell from 1,000–1,200 mm before 1999–2000 to 600–800 mm now, and advised installing sprinkler irrigation. The government launched a 4.1 billion rupees (US$50 million) National Saffron Mission in 2010, but farmers say they have yet to see its impact.
Difficult words
- precipitation — water that falls as rain or snowwinter precipitation, January precipitation
- deficit — shortage or lack of needed amountthe deficit
- irrigation — artificial supply of water to landsprinkler irrigation
- yield — amount of crop produced per areayields
- early warning system — a setup that alerts people to dangerearly warning systems
- adaptation — changes to reduce harm from problemsadaptation measures
- hectare — metric unit of area equal to 10,000 square metreshectares, per-hectare
- saffron — expensive spice from crocus flower used for flavour
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- Which short-term measures mentioned in the article would you prioritise for local saffron farmers, and why?
- How could a long-term decline in precipitation change saffron production and household incomes in Kashmir? Give possible policy responses.
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