Research led by Derek Lemoine of the University of Arizona finds that climate change has already reduced US income by an estimated 12 percent. The paper appears in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Lemoine says measuring current economic effects is important for policy and business investment.
Earlier studies that looked mainly at local, short-term weather suggested losses of less than 1 percent. When Lemoine added the year-after-year persistence of warming, the nationwide reach of temperature changes, and links between regional economies, the estimated loss rose to about 12 percent. A large part of the cost comes from how temperature shifts across the whole country affect prices and trade.
To measure these effects, researchers used climate models that simulate the world with and without human emissions and compared the two worlds to estimate county weather differences. They combined county-level daily temperature data with county personal income per capita from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for 1969–2019. The study focuses on routine temperature shifts, not on extreme events, and suggests the approach could guide resilience planning, insurance and location choices. The Arizona Institute for Resilience provided early funding, and Lemoine hopes the framework can be expanded and updated regularly.
Difficult words
- estimate — to calculate likely value or amountestimated
- persistence — continued existence of a condition over time
- nationwide — affecting or covering the whole country
- simulate — to make a model or copy of something
- emission — gases or pollutants released into the airemissions
- resilience — ability to recover from problems or shocks
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Discussion questions
- How could governments or businesses use information about current economic losses from climate change when they make plans?
- The article says the study could guide resilience planning, insurance and location choices. Which of these would be most important for your area, and why?
- The researchers used data from 1969–2019 and hope to update the framework regularly. Why is updating this kind of study useful for policy and investment decisions?
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