Climate and humanitarian experts warn that a fast-developing El Niño could cause extreme weather across many regions. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a 15 June update that the event will likely strengthen through 2026 and persist into early 2027, and forecasters give a high chance of very strong conditions.
The World Meteorological Organization’s June–September outlook expects above-normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and below-normal rainfall in parts of the tropical Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. It also warned of hotter-than-average temperatures in July and August. Regions most at risk include Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific. The International Rescue Committee named Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan among the most impacted. In Bangladesh, floods and landslides have affected more than 1.1 million people and displaced over 36,500.
Scientists note a rapid rise in the Niño 3.4 index and compare the speed to 1997. They add that the world has already warmed nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius, creating a "double whammy" of global warming plus El Niño. Responses include anticipatory funding and national preparedness: the UN has funds ready and some governments have launched measures. Whether this El Niño will be among the strongest will be clearer between mid-August and September.
Difficult words
- forecaster — person who predicts the weather or eventsforecasters
- outlook — expectation or forecast for future weather
- equatorial — near the equator, around the middle of Earth
- displace — force people to leave their homesdisplaced
- anticipatory — done before an expected event
- preparedness — state of being ready for an emergency
- index — number used to measure a specific condition
- double whammy — two bad events happening together
- above-normal — higher than the usual or average amount
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Discussion questions
- How could national governments use anticipatory funding to help people before extreme weather arrives?
- If floods and landslides displaced many people in Bangladesh, what immediate needs would those people have?
- Do you think warmer global temperatures make events like El Niño more dangerous? Why or why not?
