Experts are urging rapid action as a fast-developing El Niño threatens extreme weather in many regions. The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño conditions already present in the Pacific will strengthen in the coming months. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned on 15 June that conditions will likely strengthen over the rest of 2026, persist into early 2027 and could be among the largest since records began in 1950. Forecasters give a 63 per cent chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding two degrees Celsius above average in the eastern Pacific, a "very strong" or "Super" El Niño.
El Niño can trigger heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall. The WMO’s June–September outlook expects above-normal rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and below-normal rainfall across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. It also warned of hotter-than-average temperatures around the globe in July and August. Regions highlighted as most at risk include Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific; the International Rescue Committee named Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan among the most impacted. In Bangladesh, floods and landslides have affected more than 1.1 million people and displaced over 36,500.
Scientists point to a rapid rise in the Niño 3.4 index and compare the speed of development to the 1997 event. They warn the world faces a "double whammy" of nearly 1.5°C of background warming plus El Niño. Preparedness measures already under way include anticipatory funding and national plans: the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has US$100 million ready, with US$20 million allocated for anticipatory action in six countries. Brazil formed an Interministerial Situation Room and on 30 June its health ministry launched measures including a National Heat Risk Dashboard and R$9.8 billion (US$1.92 billion) in planned health investments through to 2035. Chile declared an emergency in ten regions on Monday (13 July). Experts and aid specialists urge stronger early warning systems, community engagement, infrastructure upgrades and timely resource allocation. Whether this El Niño will be among the strongest will only be confirmed between mid-August and September.
Difficult words
- strengthen — become more forceful or make more forceful
- sea surface temperature — temperature of the ocean surface layersea surface temperatures
- forecaster — person or organization who predicts weatherForecasters
- trigger — cause something to start or happen
- outlook — forecast or expectation about future conditions
- displace — force people to leave their homesdisplaced
- preparedness — actions and plans to be ready
- double whammy — two bad effects happening at the same time
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Discussion questions
- What short-term actions should governments prioritise to reduce harm from a strong El Niño? Explain your reasons.
- How can anticipatory funding help communities prepare for floods, droughts or heatwaves? Give one or two examples.
- Which infrastructure upgrades mentioned (for example, early warning systems or community engagement) would be most useful in your area, and why? Please give reasons.
