El Niño is a period of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts projects an increased chance for a strong El Niño this year. Emily Becker of the University of Miami says most computer climate models predict El Niño later this year, and subsurface tropical Pacific waters are currently warmer than normal, another indicator of a developing event.
El Niño events usually occur every two to seven years and last nine to twelve months. Its opposite, La Niña, shows cooler-than-normal Pacific temperatures. Becker says there is about an 80% chance an El Niño will develop by fall and a one-in-four chance it will become strong.
A strong El Niño tends to increase upper-level vertical wind shear across the Atlantic, which can break apart developing tropical storms and suppress hurricane activity. Regionally, the Southeast U.S. can see wetter winters, the Southwest can be cooler and wetter (which could help drought), and the West Coast and parts of the Pacific can get more storms, flooding and landslides. The actual effect on the Atlantic season will depend on timing and other factors such as Atlantic ocean temperatures and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which cycles every 30 to 60 days.
Difficult words
- subsurface — under the ocean surface, below the top layer
- indicator — a sign that something is happening or changing
- suppress — to reduce or stop something from growing or happening
- vertical wind shear — change in wind speed or direction with height
- drought — a long period with very little or no rain
- develop — to begin and grow over timedeveloping
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- How could a strong El Niño affect everyday life in your region? Give one or two examples.
- Which of the regional changes mentioned in the article would concern you most, and why?
- If meteorologists say there is about an 80% chance of El Niño, what practical steps could people take to prepare for wetter winters or more storms?
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