New research led by Derek Lemoine at the University of Arizona Eller College of Management suggests that improving short-term temperature forecasts could cut U.S. heat-related mortality substantially—an estimated 18% to 25% reduction by 2100 under some scenarios. The study argues that timely, accurate warnings help people change plans and protect their health, and that forecast underestimates of hot conditions pose the greatest danger.
The authors combined day-ahead National Weather Service forecasts dating back to the summer of 2004 with observed weather from Oregon State University’s PRISM Climate Group—which collects tens of thousands of station observations every day—and with county-level mortality records from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. After excluding deaths not linked to weather, they analyzed how forecast errors relate to mortality.
In early 2025 the team surveyed professional meteorologists about likely advances in forecasting technology, including artificial intelligence, the effects of climate change, and changes in funding and staffing. Those responses informed three future forecasting scenarios—one matching meteorologists’ most optimistic expectations, one matching their most pessimistic projections, and one assuming perfect accuracy. The researchers then estimated outcomes under a no-climate-change case and warming scenarios of 1.6°C, 2.7°C and 3.8°C.
The study finds that improved forecasts could, depending on technological progress and the extent of warming, largely offset projected increases in heat-related deaths. Conversely, declining investment and lower forecast quality could add to heat fatalities. Lemoine notes that economists assign a standardized value to lives saved; applying that value shows a substantial economic benefit to investing in better weather forecasting.
Difficult words
- forecast — prediction of future weather conditionsforecasts
- underestimate — to judge something as smaller or less severeunderestimates
- mortality — number of deaths in a population
- scenario — a possible sequence of future eventsscenarios
- offset — to reduce the effect of something else
- investment — money spent to improve services or systems
- timely — happening at the right or needed time
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- Do you think governments should increase funding for weather forecasting? Why or why not?
- How might more accurate short-term forecasts change people’s behaviour during heat waves?
- What are the benefits and possible challenges of using an economic value for lives saved when deciding to invest in forecasting?
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