Researchers say better short-term weather forecasts could lower many heat-related deaths in the United States by the year 2100. Timely and accurate warnings give people time to change plans and protect their health during very hot weather.
The research team used day-ahead forecasts from the National Weather Service and compared them with actual climate records from the PRISM climate group and county death records from the CDC. They found that forecast accuracy matters, especially when forecasts miss hot days.
The team also asked professional meteorologists in early 2025 about future forecasting technology. Their answers helped the researchers consider how improved forecasts might change future heat risks.
Difficult words
- researcher — person who studies a subject and collects informationResearchers
- forecast — prediction of future weather or other conditionsforecasts, forecasting
- warning — message that tells people to be careful or actwarnings
- accuracy — how exact or correct information or measurements are
- meteorologist — scientist who studies weather and makes forecastsmeteorologists
- climate — long-term usual weather in an area
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- Have you ever changed plans because of a weather warning? What did you do?
- How do you protect your health during very hot weather?
- Do you think better forecasts would help people in your area? Why or why not?
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