World close to 1.5°C Paris limit, new data show ^{CEFR B2}

Recent data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organization indicate the planet is close to breaching the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement. Copernicus calculated the 2025 global surface air temperature at 1.47°C above pre‑industrial times and found the 2023–2025 average exceeded 1.5°C, with 2024 at 1.6°C and 2023 at 1.48°C. The WMO's consolidated analysis of eight datasets put 2025 at 1.44°C above the 1850–1900 average and gave the three‑year average for 2023–2025 as 1.48°C, both with a margin of uncertainty of 0.13°C.

Copernicus combines historical observations, satellite records and computer models to produce its estimates, while other datasets draw on weather stations, ships and buoys. WMO secretary‑general Celeste Saulo noted that 2025 began and ended with a cooling La Niña but still ranked among the warmest years because heat‑trapping greenhouse gases have accumulated. She emphasised the need for early warning systems to reduce harm from heatwaves, heavy rain and intense tropical cyclones.

Copernicus had earlier estimated the world would pass 1.5°C by March 2045, but faster recent warming has shifted that forecast: the service now says the threshold could be reached as early as 2030 if current rates continue. Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts said the globe has warmed by about 1.4°C above pre‑industrial levels and, at the recent 15‑year rate, would reach 1.5°C by the end of this decade. Researchers and campaigners warned of serious impacts, especially for low‑ and middle‑income countries, and the UN IPCC says passing 1.5°C raises the chance of weather events unprecedented in the observed record. Experts linked recent extremes—Hurricane Melissa, drought in Brazil, and flooding in Colombia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—to a warming climate and called for urgent action beyond fossil fuels and stronger plans for loss and damage.