A study from Aalto University in Espoo, Finland, modelled how 30 food crops could respond to warming of between 1.5 and 4 degrees Celsius. Published in Nature Food, the research examines how shifts in temperature, rainfall and aridity reduce land suitable for growing these crops.
Researchers found that low-latitude countries will be worst affected. These include many places in the Middle East, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. The results suggest up to about a third of crop production in those regions is at risk under a 2°C rise, and that share could reach about half with 3°C of warming. In Sub-Saharan Africa almost three quarters of current production is at risk if warming exceeds 3°C.
Sara Heikonen, the doctoral researcher who led the study, says equatorial crop production is most vulnerable. Co-author Matti Kummu notes the model does not include new pests or extreme weather. The researchers stress limiting warming to 2°C and the need for adaptation such as climate-resilient varieties, better irrigation and agroforestry.
Difficult words
- model — to create a simplified representation to studymodelled
- aridity — condition of very low rainfall and dryness
- low-latitude — areas near the Equator with warm climate
- vulnerable — easily harmed or affected by problems
- adaptation — changes to live or work in new conditions
- irrigation — supplying water to crops by human systems
- agroforestry — growing trees and crops together on farms
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- What difficulties might people face if crop production falls in low-latitude countries?
- Which of the suggested adaptation measures could be useful where you live, and why?
- Why do the researchers say limiting warming to 2°C is important?
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