Global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time last year, and a new study models how 30 food crops could be affected by warming between 1.5°C and 4°C. Published in Nature Food and led by researchers at Aalto University in Espoo, the work examines changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity that reduce land suitable for agriculture.
The study finds low-latitude countries will be worst affected. Many nations in the Middle East, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America face high risk: up to about a third of crop production could be at risk under a 2°C rise, rising to as much as half with 3°C. In Sub-Saharan Africa almost three quarters of current production is at risk if warming exceeds 3°C. Mid- and high-latitude areas are unlikely to lose suitable cropland and may see increased crop diversity.
Key staples — rice, maize, wheat, potato and soybean, which together provide more than two-thirds of the world’s food energy — are expected to be severely affected. The study also covers less-researched crops such as cowpea and cassava, and highlights tropical root crops like yam as particularly vulnerable. Co-author Matti Kummu warns the model does not include new pests or extreme weather events caused by warming.
The researchers say limiting warming to 2°C would reduce the worst effects on production and diversity, and they stress the need for adaptation. Suggested measures include developing climate-resilient crop varieties, promoting underused local species, and improving irrigation, fertilisation and agroforestry. Experts also call for quantifiable climate and agriculture investment plans and targeted finance to support the most vulnerable communities.
Difficult words
- pre-industrial — before large-scale industrial emissions started
- aridity — lack of rainfall or dry conditions
- low-latitude — regions near the equator, generally hotter
- staple — a basic food grown and widely eatenstaples
- diversity — variety of different crops or species
- climate-resilient — able to cope with changing climate conditions
- agroforestry — growing trees and crops together on land
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- How might risks to staple crops affect food security in the low-latitude regions mentioned?
- Which of the adaptation measures listed do you think could help small farmers most, and why?
- What obstacles could prevent targeted finance from reaching the most vulnerable communities?
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