Researchers from the Global Burden of Crop Loss (GBCL) warn that crop losses driven by climate shocks, pests and diseases are worsening food insecurity across Africa. They identify erratic rainfall, flooding and biological threats as principal drivers that reduce yields, depress farmer incomes and strain national food supplies and global commodity markets.
Local examples show the range of impacts. In Kimilili, western Kenya, subsistence farmer Salome Kibunde farms five hectares and supports a household of nine. In 2025 March rains allowed planting but then rainfall stopped for nearly two weeks in April, disrupting germination; short rains were unreliable and drought returned during early growth, while excess rain at harvest caused maize to rot. Kibunde says losses on her five hectares rose from two bags of rotten maize last year to about six bags in 2025, and she notes that women farmers often pool small harvests. CABI training has helped her manage risks, though it cannot remove them entirely.
Flooding is a growing problem in Nigeria, according to Yunusa Halidu, a medium-scale farmer and secretary of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria. Halidu says floods have increased markedly over the past 30 years and became one of the biggest challenges in the past two years; rising input costs also mean few farmers can break even and many remain in farming because they have no alternative livelihoods.
At regional level, Komlavi Akpoti of the International Water Management Institute estimates climate shocks can cut national crop production by nearly a third in bad years, with around one-third of smallholders affected during extreme seasons. Staple crop yields often fall five to 15 per cent in major dry spells, and cocoa yields in Ghana decline about five to seven per cent in drought years. Pests and diseases are costly: CABI research shows potato cyst nematodes and soft rot Pectobacteriaceae caused annual losses up to US$208 million and US$35 million respectively across 12 countries, in a potato sector valued at about US$500 million. Tom Kirk of AbacusBio says maize losses alone were estimated at nearly US$200 billion in 2022, about 40 per cent of maize production, though GBCL figures are still being finalised. GBCL modelling is intended to map where losses occur and their drivers to guide targeted investment, insurance and early responses.
- Expand small-scale irrigation and water storage
- Provide credit for resilient seed and inputs
- Improve seasonal weather and crop data
Difficult words
- erratic — unpredictable and not regular over time
- germination — process when a seed begins to grow
- subsistence — farming that produces mainly for family use
- depress — reduce the amount or level of something
- strain — put pressure on systems or resources
- commodity — a basic agricultural product sold on markets
- livelihood — a way people earn money and survivelivelihoods
- smallholder — a farmer who manages a small farmsmallholders
- resilient — able to withstand or recover from shocks
- model — create a simplified representation to predict eventsmodelling
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- Which of the three suggested measures do you think would help small farmers most, and why?
- How can repeated climate shocks change people’s livelihoods and national food supplies in a region? Give one or two examples from the article or real life.
- What role can training and information (for example CABI training or better weather data) play alongside financial support like credit or insurance?
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