Researchers, led by Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at North Carolina State University, forecast an Atlantic hurricane season close to recent averages. The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea, and the season runs from June 1 through November 30.
The forecast estimates 12 to 15 named storms, six to nine hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes in the basin. By comparison, recent averages for 1994–2025 are 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Regional predictions differ: the Gulf of Mexico is forecast for two to five named storms, with one to two becoming hurricanes and the potential for one major hurricane; the Caribbean Sea is forecast for one to three named storms, with one to two hurricanes and the potential for one major hurricane.
Xie’s method draws on more than 100 years of historical hurricane positions and intensity and on variables such as large-scale weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures. The forecast was produced in collaboration between NC State’s marine, earth and atmospheric sciences department and its computer science department. It provides seasonal counts but does not specify where or when storms will make landfall, so officials and residents should use it for planning and rely on storm-by-storm forecasts as events approach.
Difficult words
- forecast — prediction of future weather events
- basin — area of ocean and nearby seas
- named storm — storm that the weather service namesnamed storms
- major hurricane — very strong hurricane with high wind speedsmajor hurricanes
- intensity — strength or force of a storm
- sea-surface temperature — temperature of the ocean surface watersea-surface temperatures
- landfall — moment a storm reaches the shore
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- How could local officials use a seasonal forecast like this when preparing for hurricane season? Give two practical actions.
- Why do the researchers recommend relying on storm-by-storm forecasts as events approach, even after a seasonal forecast is published?
- Which local preparations would you consider if the forecast predicted more major hurricanes than average? Explain your choices.
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