Researchers, led by Lian Xie of North Carolina State University, predict the coming Atlantic hurricane season will be close to recent averages. The season runs from June 1 through November 30 and covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea.
The forecast estimates 12 to 15 named storms, six to nine hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes. Recent averages from 1994 to 2025 are 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Regional forecasts show variation: the Gulf of Mexico is forecast for two to five named storms and one to two hurricanes, while the Caribbean Sea is forecast for one to three named storms and one to two hurricanes.
Xie’s team used more than 100 years of hurricane positions and intensity data plus variables such as weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures. The forecast gives seasonal counts but does not say where or when storms will make landfall, so officials and residents should also follow detailed storm-by-storm forecasts.
Difficult words
- predict — say what will happen in the future
- forecast — an official statement about expected weatherforecasts
- intensity — the strength or power of something
- sea-surface temperature — temperature of the ocean surface watersea-surface temperatures
- named storm — a storm given a name by weather agenciesnamed storms
- landfall — when a storm reaches and hits land
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- What actions should local officials and residents take besides reading the seasonal forecast?
- Do you prefer seasonal forecasts or detailed storm-by-storm forecasts? Why?
- How might information about sea-surface temperatures help people prepare for hurricanes?
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