How Generative AI Changes Disinformation Campaigns ^{CEFR B2}

An interview published on November 12, 2025 by Antidisinfo.net and republished under a content-sharing agreement with Global Voices and Metamorphosis Foundation examined how generative AI changes foreign interference. Laura Jasper of the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) described new strategic threats and what analysts must do differently as generative AI makes disinformation faster, wider and easier to tailor.

Jasper said attribution is now a question of probability rather than certainty because adversaries often employ proxies, false flags and commercial tools, including generative AI. She advised analysts to assign confidence levels (for example low, medium or high) and to publish the basis for those assessments. This practice preserves credibility and helps build shared understanding across organisations.

HCSS studies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific identify a common vulnerability: heavy reliance on commercial platforms paired with social trust fractures such as polarization and low institutional trust. Jasper argued that hostile actors exploit these conditions to amplify divisions. Measuring whether a foreign campaign succeeds requires observable changes in behaviour, not just opinion shifts. Analysts must define the behavioural end-state — for example reduced voter turnout or increased protest participation — and establish clear baselines and counterfactuals.

To link exposure to action, Jasper recommends combining quantitative sources (polling, mobility data, transaction or participation records) with qualitative insights like interviews and focus groups. True resilience appears when societies recover quickly, when intended behaviours do not materialise or when they rebound fast. Jasper cited the study Start with the End: Effect Measurement of Behavioural Influencing in Military Operations as a basis for this approach. Asked about legal “grey zones,” she refused to advise methods outside the law and instead urged broad, granular engagement across society, involving community builders, investigative journalists and local actors rather than only top-level government responses.