New research models how rising electricity use by data centers and cryptocurrency mining could affect the U.S. power system through 2030. The authors estimated future demand from computing facilities, then ran an energy system optimization model to identify the least costly ways to meet that demand while complying with existing laws and regulations. The model examined supply and demand on an hourly basis for 26 regions covering the lower 48 states.
The results indicate substantial regional impacts. National electricity prices could rise by an average of 6%–29%, with some areas facing increases as high as 57%. Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation could increase by up to 28% by 2030 compared with a scenario with no data center growth, and recent progress in reducing power-sector emissions could be largely erased.
The places most likely to see the largest price increases include Virginia, eastern North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, west Texas, Ohio, West Virginia and New York. The team, including corresponding author Jeremiah Johnson of North Carolina State University, also highlights uncertainty about the cost of building new natural gas turbines and the future price of natural gas; despite these uncertainties they judge substantial cost and emissions increases likely.
The authors argue that regulators, utilities and government officials need to make informed near-term decisions about power generation and data center construction. The paper appears in Environmental Research Letters, and additional coauthors are from Sutubra Research, the University of Pittsburgh, Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Toronto. Source: North Carolina State University.
Difficult words
- model — a tool that represents a real system for analysis
- optimization — process of finding the least costly or best option
- emission — gases released into the atmosphere from sourcesemissions
- comply — to act according to rules or requirementscomplying
- cryptocurrency mining — using computers to create and verify digital coins
- electricity — power used for lighting, machines and heating
- data center — a facility with many computers that store and process informationdata centers
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- How could growth in data centers and cryptocurrency mining change electricity costs and emissions in your region? Give reasons or examples.
- What near-term actions could regulators and utilities take to prepare for rising electricity demand from computing facilities?
- The authors mention uncertainty about new natural gas turbine costs and natural gas prices. How does this uncertainty affect planning for future electricity needs?
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