Researchers published a new analysis in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that used US death certificate data for people born from the 1890s through the 1980s and tracked mortality trends from 1979 through 2023. The team included Leah Abrams, an assistant professor of community health at Tufts University, collaborators from The University of Texas Medical Branch, and researchers at several European institutions.
They measured deaths from all causes and from three major cause groups: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and external causes. The category of external causes covers drug overdoses, suicides, homicides and accidents. Comparing all-cause mortality with these specific groups allowed the researchers to test whether one dominant problem drives shorter lives or whether multiple, overlapping problems affect different generations.
The results indicate that some birth cohorts are already faring worse than those before them. In particular, people from late Gen X and early Millennial birth years show higher mortality than their predecessors, and some younger people are dying from diseases once rare in the young. Earlier explanations — rising "deaths of despair" and stalled progress against heart disease — help explain parts of the trend, but the study suggests several overlapping crises are at work. The authors say the findings may help the United States learn from past decades of mortality and point to important questions for public health policy and future research.
Difficult words
- analysis — detailed study of information or data
- mortality — the number or rate of deaths
- cardiovascular disease — diseases of the heart and blood vessels
- external causes — deaths from accidents, violence, or drug overdoses
- birth cohort — group of people born in the same periodbirth cohorts
- predecessor — person or group that came before otherspredecessors
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- What public health policies could address the overlapping crises the study mentions? Give reasons.
- How might comparing all-cause mortality with specific cause groups help researchers and policymakers?
- What lessons from past decades of mortality could be most useful for future research and policy?
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