Nepal’s large solar potential blocked by policy and borders ^{CEFR B2}

The EMBER report of October 2025 shows a global shift: renewables now exceed coal in the electricity mix, and solar contributed 83 percent of that increase. Nepal has substantial untapped potential — 432 gigawatts of technical solar capacity versus 42,000 megawatts of hydropower potential — and benefits from more than 300 sunny days a year. At the same time, climate risks such as glacial lake outburst floods are making hydropower in the Himalayas less reliable.

Domestic policy and regional geopolitics are the main barriers to rapid solar expansion. The government currently caps solar at 10 percent of the energy mix and solar supplies just 5 percent. Solar projects face competitive bidding and a tariff of NPR 5 (USD 0.035) per unit; hydropower, by contrast, is allocated on a first-come, first-served basis and receives a higher fixed rate of NPR 6.5 (USD 0.046) per unit. This creates a supply-driven hydropower sector and a demand-driven solar sector, discouraging many private solar investments.

Energy expert Kushal Gurung says investors are asking for higher hydropower tariffs given environmental risks, and when the government opened bidding for 800 MW of solar the private sector bid for over 3,000 MW. Energy Minister Kulman Ghising agreed in principle to raise the solar cap but resisted removing the bidding requirement. Geopolitical tensions have also affected projects: a 2018 proposal in Mustang for 150 MW plus 20 MW of battery storage was halted by the Mines Department amid concerns about possible uranium, and insiders say China pressured Nepal because of the site's proximity to Tibet. A planned USD 190 million Risen Energy scheme for two 125 MW plants with 20 MW storage in Banke and Kapilvastu was not signed after India raised security concerns, although smaller China-backed projects proceeded in 2024 in Lalitpur under the "Happy Community" program.

Possible next steps include raising the solar cap to 30 percent, zoning high-radiation areas such as Dolpo and Mustang for development, and promoting net metering and rooftop installations. Gurung warned that diplomatic work will be needed to prevent regional politics from delaying or blocking projects.