Climate change increases conflict in Mali ^{CEFR B2}

The UN Sustainable Development Group (UNSDG) finds that Mali is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. Between 1970 and 2020 the country experienced at least 40 major climate shocks. The UNSDG reports that drought affects about 400,000 people each year and reduces crop revenue by USD 9.5 million annually, and it identifies climate change as a major contributor to rising conflict.

Declining soil fertility and degraded grazing lands have driven farmers to expand cultivation into traditional herding routes, producing violent clashes. Violent extremist groups have taken advantage of ethnic, religious and land disputes to recruit members, with young people especially at risk. The climate crisis affects women unevenly by forcing longer journeys for fuelwood and water and by increasing risks of gender-based violence as conflicts escalate.

Several approaches have shown success in building resilience and reducing tensions. Local authorities and communities have improved early warning systems and introduced training that blends science with traditional knowledge — including assisted natural regeneration and land and water management — to help farmers and pastoralists adapt. Communities have also re-established traditional laws for sustainable forest use; leaders say trees and forests have begun to regenerate, reducing conflicts and floods. Economic measures aim to reduce recruitment by creating jobs, and some enterprises plan to expand local rice and vegetable production to keep youth in rural areas.

International recommendations from SIPRI and CGIAR stress long-term development on livelihood security, herder–farmer relations, resource disputes, governance and social inclusion. SIPRI (2023) calls for MINUSMA to work with UNEP to appoint an Environmental Security Advisor, for greater leadership by women and girls in resource and climate decisions, and for a climate-sensitive stabilisation strategy with partners such as the AU, EU and UN. A March 2025 CGIAR report says stakeholders want programs to help local communities cope; those ideas should guide a technical committee developing Mali’s first national climate security strategy.