Toy shortages, higher prices and early shopping advice ^{CEFR B1}

For years toy makers followed a set schedule: design in spring, make toys in summer, and ship for the holidays. This year that schedule is disturbed by global supply chain disruptions, steep tariffs and rising shipping costs. Manufacturers once relied on China’s speed and low labour costs; China still produces nearly 80% of toys and 90% of holiday decorations sold in the US. Uncertainty around tariffs, some as high as 145%, has led some firms to freeze expansion and move production to countries like Vietnam and Thailand. Shipping container costs have jumped from $2,500 to $20,000.

Industry surveys show operational strain: 87% of midsize companies and 81% of small companies have delayed orders, and nearly half warn they could shut down if higher costs continue. Many suppliers have cancelled orders or postponed shipments. Analysts report toy prices rose 2.2% between April and May, and some items could cost two to three times more by Christmas. Retailers are keeping inventories lean, so there will be fewer choices and faster sellouts for trending toys.

Some makers see opportunities in low-tech play and sustainability. The eco-friendly toy market is projected to grow from $12.5 billion in 2024 to $23.1 billion by 2033, and major brands have pledged to use 100% recycled or bio-based plastics by 2030. Experts advise parents to shop early, stay flexible, and consider simple gifts or alternatives.