The holiday toy market is under strain from several linked causes: global supply chain disruptions, new tariff policies and sharply higher shipping costs. These forces have reduced manufacturers’ room to respond to trends and raised uncertainty about product availability. Manufacturers once depended on China’s speed and lower labour costs; China still produces nearly 80% of toys and 90% of holiday decorations sold in the US. With some tariffs as high as 145%, companies have frozen expansion and shifted production to Vietnam and Thailand, though some of those facilities remain under Chinese ownership. Shipping containers that once cost $2,500 now run $20,000, increasing production costs across the board.
Industry surveys point to widespread operational strain: 87% of midsize firms and 81% of small firms have delayed orders, and nearly half warn they could shut down if higher costs persist. Many suppliers have cancelled orders or postponed shipments, which reduces stock for retailers. Analysts report that toy prices rose 2.2% between April and May, and some items could cost two to three times more by Christmas. Retailers are keeping inventories lean, which means fewer choices and quicker sellouts for popular toys. Timothy Halloran warns that public awareness of shortages can trigger buying panics and even a black market on sites like eBay.
Amid the disruption, some designers and makers see openings. There is a resurgence in non-technology-based toys, with designers avoiding extra screens and focusing on creative, low-tech play. Sustainability is growing too: the eco-friendly toy market is projected to grow from $12.5 billion in 2024 to $23.1 billion by 2033, and major brands such as Mattel and Playmobil have pledged to use 100% recycled or bio-based plastics by 2030. For now, experts advise parents to shop early, stay flexible, and remember that simple gifts—such as a kite, a ball, or a board game—can still bring joy.
- Kite
- Ball
- Board game
Difficult words
- disruption — a break or serious problem in systemsdisruptions
- tariff — a tax on imported goodstariffs
- shipping — moving goods by sea or land
- strain — pressure or stress that causes difficulty
- inventory — the stock of goods a retailer holdsinventories
- resurgence — a new increase in interest or activity
- sustainability — avoiding environmental harm over time
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- How might parents change their shopping plans because of the supply and price problems described?
- What benefits and challenges could arise from major brands pledging to use recycled or bio-based plastics?
- How could a shift of production from China to countries like Vietnam and Thailand affect toy availability and prices?
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