The IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) system, established in 2004 as a consortium of 21 partner organisations, plays a central role in directing humanitarian aid. IPC analyses inform allocations of more than $6 billion each year and cover roughly 30 countries. A new study in Nature Food shows that IPC assessments systematically undercount people in crisis.
The research team, led by Hope Michelson and Erin Lentz with Kathy Baylis and Chungmann Kim, was invited by IPC in 2021 to evaluate the classification process. They started with about 20 interviews of humanitarian agencies and users, who generally assumed IPC overstated need. The team then analysed nearly 10,000 food security assessments from 2017 to 2023, covering 917 million individuals across 33 countries and yielding 2.8 billion person observations.
Analysis revealed pronounced "bunching" just below the 20% phase 3 threshold. Using their methods, the researchers estimated 293.1 million people in phase 3 or higher, while IPC assessments reported 226.9 million — a gap of 66.2 million people, roughly one in five. The authors attribute part of the mismatch to how working groups handle conflicting or noisy indicators, noting a tendency toward conservative choices driven by concern about accusations of exaggeration.
Despite the shortfall, the study affirms the ongoing value of the IPC process and urges improved data collection and decision-making. The authors suggest that machine learning could strengthen data and modelling but should not replace expert evaluation, and they are working to link indicators to malnutrition outcomes and actual aid responses.
Difficult words
- consortium — group of organisations working together
- undercount — report a smaller number than actual
- allocation — distribution of money or resourcesallocations
- assessment — careful judgement or evaluation of a situationassessments
- bunching — grouping of values in one small range
- threshold — a limit or level that triggers change
- conservative — favoring cautious or limited choices
- malnutrition — harm caused by lack of adequate food
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- What consequences might the 66.2 million shortfall have for people in crisis and for aid distribution?
- How could data collection and decision-making improve to reduce undercounting in assessments?
- How would you balance machine learning tools with expert judgement when evaluating humanitarian need?
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