More electric vehicles could lower US energy costs ^{CEFR B1}

The study, published in Energy Policy, models changes in vehicle policy and market outcomes between 2022 and 2035. Researchers used a version of the National Energy Modeling System developed by Carter School researchers to compare scenarios with no new federal EV incentives and only pre-2024 fuel efficiency standards against a middle path between the now-repealed federal standards and rules adopted by California and 17 other states.

Under the stronger-adoption scenario, the federal standards had sought to more than double new EV sales to 69% by 2032, and the state rules aim to end sales of new gasoline-powered vehicles in those jurisdictions by 2035. The researchers find that widespread EV adoption by 2035 would cut household energy bills by more than 6%, including over a 4% reduction at the pump. They estimate upper-income households would save about 6.4% on energy while lower-income households likely still driving gasoline cars in 2035 would spend about 6.6% less.

Savings flow mainly from lower gasoline demand, which reduces pump prices for all consumers, and from faster battery improvements that can lower electricity storage costs. The authors also find oil imports could fall by 7% and exports could rise nearly 4%, strengthening the US role as a net energy exporter and helping cushion the economy during global shocks.

However, the repeal of federal EV incentives and a rollback of standards make these benefits uncertain, and the authors argue a nationwide strategy is needed to maximize consumer and national energy-security gains.