Seeing Uncertainty as an Opportunity ^{CEFR B2}

Many people today feel life is more uncertain because of events such as a pandemic, a war, an energy crisis and the climate catastrophe. ETH Zurich researchers asked whether a brief intervention could change how people interpret uncertainty — as a threat or as an opportunity — and whether this change would affect attitudes to social diversity, social change and support for right‑wing populist parties.

The team ran a controlled experiment in Germany between December 2024 and March 2025, timed around the February 2025 parliamentary elections. The design compared a test group and a control group; both completed identical questionnaires. The test group first watched an 11‑slide presentation, with text, graphics and photos and scientific examples of positive effects of uncertainty. The presentation included an excerpt from a Stanford commencement address by Steve Jobs, lasted on average 7.5 minutes and was shown only once at the start of the experiment. The sample included 391 people in the experimental group and 354 in the control group, aged 18 to 80, and was representative by education, gender, income and social and geographical origin.

The completed questionnaires confirmed all hypotheses. Relative to the control group, the experimental group reported more positive attitudes toward social diversity, greater willingness to support social change and a lower likelihood of voting for the right‑wing populist party AfD. The effect proved surprisingly persistent: the changed mindset remained stable over one month, Ruri Takizawa said. Grote argued that promoting a mindset that sees uncertainty as opportunity can strengthen democracy, and the researchers noted an adapted design could test attitudes toward the climate crisis or new technologies such as AI.

The research appears in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. Source: ETH Zurich.