A study published in the International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management examines how demand for last-mile fulfillment changed in the US from 2010 to 2023. Iowa State University researcher Micah Marzolf and coauthors analyzed millions of shopping trips using transaction data from NielsenIQ covering roughly 60,000 households nationwide. Coauthors include Jason Miller and Simone Peinkofer of Michigan State University.
The researchers define last-mile fulfillment as the final step of getting a product from a warehouse to a customer’s home. They found that residents of large metropolitan areas relied on delivery much more than rural households. Between 2010 and 2019 delivery demand rose nationwide, but it grew substantially faster in the most urban areas.
When COVID-19 hit in 2020, online shopping surged and the increase was strongest in cities. After lockdowns eased, demand for delivery remained elevated through 2023. The study notes that congestion, parking limits, order volumes, and longer rural wait times help explain the gap.
Difficult words
- last-mile fulfillment — final step of delivering goods to homes.
- demand — need or desire for a product or service.
- transaction — a recorded purchase or sale between people.
- household — people who live together in one home.households
- metropolitan — relating to a large city and its area.
- rural — relating to the countryside or small towns.
- congestion — too much traffic or crowding in one place.
- lockdown — official order to stay at home and limit movement.lockdowns
- surge — a sudden large increase in something.surged
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Discussion questions
- How might longer rural wait times affect a person’s choice to use delivery or go to a store?
- Do you think delivery demand in large cities will stay high after 2023? Why or why not?
- What local changes could reduce delivery problems such as congestion or parking limits?
