When glaciers may disappear: a new global study ^{CEFR B2}

A new international study led by ETH Zurich together with the WSL research institute and the Vrije Universiteit Brussel estimates how many glaciers may remain to 2100 and when each glacier is likely to disappear. Rather than focusing only on ice mass, the research counts glaciers and models the timing of their loss. The authors call the year with the highest annual loss the "Peak Glacier Extinction."

The results show the Alps could reach their peak loss rate as early as 2033–2041. Globally, the peak is about ten years later and could rise from roughly 2,000 to 4,000 glaciers lost per year. At +1.5° C the peak would be around 2041 with about 2,000 glaciers vanishing in one year; at +4° C the peak moves to about 2055 and rises to around 4,000.

Scenario results for the Alps are stark: if current policies lead to +2.7° C, only about 110 glaciers would remain in Central Europe by 2100 (about 3% of today’s total); at +4° C that number falls to around 20. Under the Paris target of +1.5° C about 12% (roughly 430 of about 3,000 in 2025) would remain, and at +2° C around 8% (ca. 270) would survive. Globally, roughly 100,000 glaciers would remain at +1.5° C but only about 18,000 at +4° C.

Coauthor Daniel Farinotti says, "The results underline how urgently ambitious climate action is needed." The study notes that complete glacier loss can harm tourism and local culture even if it adds little to sea-level rise. The researchers suggest their timeline can help policymakers, communities, tourism planners and hazard managers prepare. They also support the Global Glacier Casualty List to keep names and stories of lost glaciers, such as Birch and Pizol, alive.