The study, published in Energy & Fuels and authored by Hon Chung Lau of Rice University and Steve C. Tsai of Low Carbon Energies LLC, projects that US data center power capacity could grow from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts by 2030. It finds that, without new emissions strategies, CO2 from fossil fuel power plants serving data centers could rise from about 90 million metric tons per year in 2025 to more than 404 million metric tons per year by 2030.
Researchers analyzed publicly available data on announced US data centers, including projected power capacity, energy sources and locations. They used each state’s electricity mix to estimate emissions and examined whether those emissions could be captured and stored underground in saline aquifers. The study highlights rapid growth in Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and Illinois; Texas alone would need to add roughly 25 gigawatts by 2030.
Findings show 34 states have enough saline aquifer capacity to store more than 100 years of projected data center-related emissions beyond 2030. Estimated storage could hold about 59 million metric tons in 2025 (around 66% of sector emissions) and about 299 million metric tons by 2030 (around 74%); with out-of-state storage included, more than 90% of emissions could potentially be mitigated.
The authors note their numbers are conservative: they included only data centers with publicly announced power requirements and assumed unspecified electricity would come from each state’s grid with the energy mix remaining constant through 2030. As Hon Chung Lau says, "This does not mean carbon capture is the only solution, but it does show that the geology exists to make a meaningful impact."
Difficult words
- capacity — maximum electrical output a facility can providepower capacity
- emission — harmful gas released into the atmosphereemissions
- saline aquifer — underground salty-water rock layer used for storagesaline aquifers
- mitigate — to make a harmful effect less severemitigated
- conservative — cautious estimate that likely undercounts facts
- carbon capture — process of removing carbon dioxide from emissions
- electricity mix — the combination of energy sources used in a grid
Tip: hover, focus or tap highlighted words in the article to see quick definitions while you read or listen.
Discussion questions
- The authors say geology exists to help reduce emissions. What advantages and limits do you see for carbon capture compared with other solutions to reduce data center emissions?
- The study mentions out-of-state storage could mitigate over 90% of emissions. What logistical or political challenges might arise from relying on out-of-state storage?
- Texas would need to add roughly 25 gigawatts by 2030. How could such rapid growth affect local energy planning, infrastructure and communities?
Related articles
Australian creators launch 'Stop AI Theft' campaign
Artists, journalists and Aboriginal cultural workers in Australia have launched the "Stop AI Theft" campaign. They say generative AI uses their work without permission, harms jobs and income, and they demand payment, rights and transparency.
